TNF AFC West Preview: Chargers vs Chiefs Odds, Pick and Prediction
Week 15 of the NFL season begins with a monster AFC West divisional matchup between the visiting Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs who will be at home where they’re practically unbeatable. Some pundits and fans are hailing this as the AFC game of the year.
Not only will this game have an impact on the AFC West, but also the AFC playoff standings. Can the Chargers catch lightning in a bottle and pull off the upset at KC? Kickoff inside Arrowhead Stadium is at 8:20 PM ET.
Chargers vs Chiefs Live Odds and Betting History
The following odds are courtesy of Live Odds feed:
|Betting Data||Los Angeles Chargers||Kansas City Chiefs|
|Current S/U record||10-3||11-2|
|2018 ATS Home||2-5||3-3|
|2018 ATS Away||5-1||5-1-1|
|2018 O/U Home||3-4||2-4|
|2018 O/U Away||4-2||6-1|
Chargers vs Chiefs AFC West Preview
The longtime rivals have played against each other 117 times with the Chiefs leading the series at 61-55-1. Kansas City has won 9 straight games over the Chargers and look to make it a 10th straight this Thursday night. The Chargers haven’t won at Arrowhead Stadium in 5 years.
Los Angeles (10-3) has been strong on the road this year with a 5-1 record. They have won three straight overall games and haven’t lost a road game in nearly 3 months. Keep in mind that game was still in Los Angeles against the Rams.
The Chargers lost the first meeting against the Chiefs in Week 1 by a score of 38-28. They might be without their top two running backs this week, which could hurt their chances of winning.
Kansas City (11-2) is 6-0 at home and just defeated the Ravens in OT at Arrowhead Stadium. The last two games have seen the Chiefs regroup after cutting Kareem Hunt from the team. Although their rushing attack isn’t as dangerous, they still have Mahomes who is the leading candidate for the NFL MVP. Will the Chiefs sweep the Chargers for the 5th straight year?
At most football betting sites, the spread hasn’t moved much from an opening of 3.5 points in favor of the Chiefs. The majority of online sportsbooks still have the spread at 3.5 points. The Over/Under has seen more movement than the NFL spread this week. Many online betting sites opened this game with a total of 56.5 points. However, that number has come down to a current O/U of 52.5 total points.
Free NFL Sports Bet and Game Prediction: Over 52.5 Points
This certainly is one of the more exciting games on Thursday Night Football that we’ve had all season long. The Chiefs are dominant at home and I certainly expect them to win this game, especially if the Chargers don’t have running backs Gordon or Ekeler.
Although third string RB Jackson could have a breakout game against the poor Chiefs rush defense that allows 127.8 ypg, he’s not as much of a threat out of the backfield as Ekeler and Gordon are.
This means that Rivers will have to lead the Chargers to victory. Fortunately, he’s going up against the league’s worst defense in KC as they do allow 304 passing ypg, 431.8 total ypg, and 27 PPG.
In their first matchup, Rivers threw for 424 yards, 3 TDs and 1 pick. I see him surpassing the 300 mark against this Chiefs defense and throw for at least 3 TD’s. He’s going to have to play a near-perfect game for the Chargers to win because Kansas City is going to score a lot of points.
KC is averaging 36.2 ppg and 449.4 total ypg. Both of those eye popping numbers rank them at the top of the league. KC didn’t break 100 rushing yards against Baltimore last week, but they didn’t need to because Mahomes threw for 377 yards. In their first meeting this year, Patrick threw for 256 yards and 4 TDs.
It was his first game as the starting QB and he has improved since then. The Chargers give up 242.1 passing ypg and 20.6 ppg. However, I see the Chiefs easily crushing those numbers at home.
Because this is a divisional game, I expect it to be competitive even if the Chiefs get out to an early double digit lead. Rivers and the Chargers have shown that they can come back and win games. Just look at what they did in Pittsburgh two weeks ago. With that said, I’m not feeling good about the spread. I do see the Chiefs winning, but that 3.5 point spread has me feeling uncomfortable as this could end up being a game that comes down to a last minute field goal.
Furthermore, the NFL moneylines aren’t very appealing. The Chiefs are -190, which doesn’t give us a lot of betting value for what should be a tough game. And, the Chargers at +165 isn’t high enough for me to take a flyer. So, the best NFL wager to take in this game is points total. Specifically, I’m going with the Over 52.5 total points for this TNF game.
In their first matchup, the Chiefs defeated the Chargers 38 to 28, which was a total score of 66 points. On the season, the Chiefs average 36.2 ppg and the Chargers average 28.2 ppg, which is a combined average of 64.4 ppg.
On the season, the Over is 8-5 for the Chiefs and 4-1 in their last 5 games. For the Chargers, the Over is 4-2 on the road.
I like this game to score close to the 60 total point mark. I expect Rivers and Mahomes to duel each other and put up some impressive passing numbers. If you don’t feel comfortable with the Over, then take the Chiefs moneyline of -190 as they should win this game outright.
Chargers vs Chiefs Betting Recap:
- Oddsmaker: BetOnline
- Moneylines: Chargers (+165) and Chiefs (-190)
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 52.5 total points (-105)
- Prediction: Chiefs 31 – Chargers 27
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