TNF Bet: Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Odds and Prediction

by Rick Rockwell
on November 6, 2018
6

Minute Read

In the opening game of Week 10 for the NFL, fans are in for a treat as the Carolina Panthers take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in an exciting Thursday Night Football matchup. These two playoff contenders bring top notch teams into a game that can go either way. Will it be the Panthers getting a huge road win or will it be the Steelers conquering Carolina on their home field? Kickoff inside Heinz Field is at 8:20 PM ET.

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Panthers vs Steelers Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Betting Data Carolina Panthers Pittsburgh Steelers
Current S/U record 6-2 5-2-1
2018 Home 5-0 2-2
2018 Away 1-2 3-0-1
2018 ATS 5-3 5-3
2018 ATS Home 4-1 2-2
2018 ATS Away 1-2 3-1
2018 O/U 5-3 5-3
2018 O/U Home 4-1 3-1
2018 O/U Away 1-2 2-2

Panthers vs Steelers TNF Game Preview

Thursday’s game between the Steelers and the Panthers will be the 7th all-time matchup between these two franchises. Currently, the Steelers hold a 5-1 record in this head-to-head series. Pittsburgh has won 5 straight games over the Panthers and 3 straight at home. The last time these two teams played against each other was in 2014 and Pittsburgh won 37 to 19.

Carolina (6-2) comes into this matchup on a 3 game winning streak. Last weekend, they beat the Buccaneers 42-28 at home. Two weeks ago, they defeated the Ravens 36-21 and that score was closer than the actual on-field product. Carolina seems to be hitting their strides at the half-way mark of the season. But, will they be able to secure a huge road win this week?

Pittsburgh (5-2-1) has won 4 straight games with 3 of those being against AFC North rivals. The Steelers turn around on a short week and have to go up against another solid defense this week, but also seem to hitting their strides. Roughly 5 weeks ago, critics and fans were declaring the Steelers season to be over. However, after 4 straight wins, Pittsburgh is back on top of the AFC North and looking like one of the best teams in the AFC.

Depending on the sportsbook, the opening spread for this game was anywhere from 4 to 7 points in favor of the Steelers. The majority of online betting sites have a current line of -4 for Pittsburgh. I would expect this line to move before game time. Carolina could see more betting action due to their convincing wins over the last few weeks. The Over/Under opened at 50 total points and remains unchanged with most online sportsbooks.

Free NFL Sports Bet and TNF Prediction: Over 50 Points

During their 4-game winning streak, Pittsburgh has averaged 31.25 ppg. On the season, they’ve average 28.4 ppg and 424.4 total ypg. In other words, this is an explosive offense that can put up a lot of points especially at home, where they also average 31.25 ppg on the season.

At home, Big Ben is a much better QB than on the road. The Carolina Panthers are going to have a tough time keeping Ben in check. The Panthers allow 360.5 total ypg, but 266.4 ypg comes via the pass. The Steelers average 322.8 passing yards per game (4th in the NFL) and seem unstoppable in the passing game at times. When playing at Heinz Field, Big Ben averages 308 passing ypg, 2.25 TDs per game, and .75 INTs per game. He has twice as many interceptions on the road. Additionally, Big Ben has two dominant receivers in Brown and Schuster, which makes it harder for defenses to double team one or the other.

For Carolina to have any chance at winning this game, it has to start with slowing down the #4 ranked offense in the NFL. Not only will they need to play an excellent football game defensively on the road, they also need to play to their strengths on offense. Currently, Carolina is the #2 ranked rushing team in the NFL as they average 143.9 ypg.

This rushing attack starts with RB Christian McCaffery who is also a danger to catch the ball out of the backfield. On the season, McCaffery has 502 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs. Cam Newton is second on the team with 342 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs. What makes Cam so dangerous is that he is very successful at picking up first downs with his legs. Newton averages 4.5 ypc on 3rd down runs.

For the Steelers defense, they have been solid against the run as they’re ranked 6th in the NFL allowing only 90.3 rushing ypg. This will be the main battle to keep your eyes on. If Carolina can have success on the ground against a solid rush defense then they will have a great chance at winning the game.

All is not lost for Carolina if their run game is stifled. Newton is still a capable passer with solid numbers this year. Cam averages just under 240 passing ypg with 15 TD throws and just 4 INTs. Pittsburgh’s pass defense allows 278.6 passing ypg, so there’s room for Cam to have a big game through the air. Cam’s best game of the season so far, was at Atlanta where he put up 335 yards passing yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. he also rushed for 42 yards. That game, McCaffery led the Panthers with 14 receptions for 102 yards.

In my opinion, I don’t see either team really stopping the opposing offense for all four quarters. In fact, I think this game will be high scoring. Carolina is only 1-2 on the road and the Steelers are just 2-2 at home. So neither warrant a bet on their moneylines. The spread is also risky because we just don’t know if this will be a close game or not. It has the makings of a late FG win.

The safe bet is on the Over. Combined, these two teams average roughly 56 ppg. The Over is 5-2 in Carolina’s last 7 games and 4-1 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. For the Steelers, the Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games and 5-1 in their last 6 home games.

At home, Pittsburgh is allowing 25.7 ppg and scoring 31.25 ppg. On the road, Carolina is averaging 20.7 ppg and giving up 23.6 ppg. Go with the Over on this one as this has the potential for a shootout.

Panthers vs Steelers Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Panthers (+180) and Steelers (-210)
  • Spread: Steelers -4 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 50 total points (-115)
  • Prediction: Steelers 27 – Panthers 24
Pick: Over 50
-115

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