Week 5 of the NFL season begins with an NFC battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.
This will also be the first time that Tom Brady gets to take on Nick Foles as he seeks revenge for Foles and the Eagles beating Brady and the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Will Tampa Bay win their 4th straight game or will the Bears bounce back from their first defeat of the year by handing the Buccaneers a second loss on the season? Kickoff inside Soldier Field is at 8:20 PM ET.
These two football teams have played against each other 59 times with Chicago holding a commanding lead in the series 39-20. The Bears have won four of the last six matchups including their most recent game which came in 2018. Chicago won that contest 48 to 10.
In the 28 all-time meetings between these two teams at Soldier Field, Chicago has posted at 22-6 home record.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) has won three straight games on the season. These victories haven’t been pretty, but they continue to get the job done. Last weekend, Tom Brady threw for over 350 yards and five touchdowns as he led the Bucs to a come from behind victory over the Chargers.
The Chicago Bears (3-1) suffered their first loss of the season last weekend against the Colts. The Bears offense was unable to put up more than 11 points against a stout Indy defense. This week, they get a Bucs defense that’s giving up 23ppg. Can the Bears keep pace with Tampa Bay on the scoreboard?
Head to Head Betting Trends
Chicago is 6-4 SU in the last 10 meeting
Chicago is 5-2 SU in last seven home meetings
The Spread is 5-5 in the last 10 matchups
The Over/Under is 5-5 in the last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 4-13 SU in last 17 games at Chicago
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends
7-3 SU in last 10 overall games
6-2 SU when a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 pts
9-5 SU in last 14 games as a favorite
4-1 ATS in last five road games
1-4 ATS in last five NFC North games
Over is 15-3 in last 18 overall games
Over is 12-0 in last 12 NFC games
Over is 5-0 in last five road games
Chicago Bears Betting Trends
4-1 SU in last five overall games
7-1 SU in last eight NFC games
3-1 SU in last three Thursday games
2-6 SU in last eight Week 5 through 9 games
4-12 ATS in last 16 overall games
4-1 ATS in last five NFC South games
1-6 ATS in last seven October games
Under is 7-3 in last 10 games as Underdog
Under is 6-1 in last seven home games
Tampa Bay opened as a 3 point favorite with most NFL betting sites. Since then, the line has gone up to 5.5 points in favor of the Buccaneers. The Over/Under opened at 45.5 points but has come down to 44 points with most online betting sites.
Free TNF Sports Bet and Game Prediction: Tampa Bay -5.5 (-110)
Since their opening loss to the Saints, Tampa Bay has won three straight games by an average of 11.3ppg. They pulled out a hard fought victory over the Chargers last weekend by the score of 38 to 31.
Tampa is scoring 30ppg, but I expect that to come down some against the Bears this week as Chicago is only allowing 20.3ppg. They haven’t given up more than 26 points and that was against the Falcons in Week 2.
Tom Brady is starting to heat up as this team begins to gel more after no preseason games. Brady has eight TD passes and 666 passing yards in the last two games. Chicago only allows 241.5 passing ypg, but does give up 115 rushing ypg. That could bode well for Tampa’s backfield of Jones and company.
Chicago’s offense has been ugly this year. They’ve gone with Nick Foles after benching Trubisky in the game against the Falcons two weeks ago. Foles led the Bears to victory over Atlanta, but struggled against the Colts last weekend. Foles finished with 249 passing yds, 1 TD and 1 INT.
What makes things worse for the Bears is that they have a poor rushing attack. Starting RB David Montgomery finished with just 27 rushing yards against the Colts last weekend. Tampa Bay has the best rush defense as they allow just 64.3 ypg. They will make Chicago a one dimensional offense on Thursday.
I expect this game to be physical, ugly at times, and where points are hard to come by. Look at the Colts game where the Bears and Colts combined for just 30 points. This TNF game should surpass that mark, but there’s a good chance that it falls below the O/U of 44 total points.
It’s hard to put confidence in Chicago right now. They should be 1-3 on the season. The Lions dropped the game winning TD in Week 1, the Giants fell short of scoring the winning TD at the end of the game in Week 2, and the Falcons gave up a double digit 4th quarter lead in Week 3.
With that said, Tampa Bay is the better team. They also have the better offense and a defense that will make Foles and company struggle for most of the game.
Chicago is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 overall games. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 3-0 ATS this year as the favorite.
I like Tom Brady to get a small measure of revenge against Nick Foles as he leads the Bucs to an ugly win over the Bears. Look for Mike Evans to have a solid game and for Gronkowski to show up in the stat sheet.
Brady should throw for another 3 TDs and at least 250 yards against the Bears who will find it hard to move the ball on the ground and struggle to keep up with the Bucs’ offense on the scoreboard.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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