Warriors vs Rockets – NBA Game 5 Pick for May 24th
Game 4 completely changed the landscape of this series. With the Rockets winning at Golden State, Houston has reclaimed home court advantage, shattered the Warriors mystique, and proved that they’re for real. Game 4’s win was truly an impressive performance by the Rockets and it will need to be duplicated if they want to win Game 5.
The Warriors definitely missed Andre Iguodala as he didn’t play in Game 4 due to an injury.
It’s unclear if he will play in Game 5, and if he does, his effectiveness may be seriously limited. In his place was Kevon Looney who finished with 4 points and 6 rebounds. Not nearly the impact that Iguodala has on a game.
Neither team shot the ball well in Game 4, but it was Houston’s defense that won the game by limiting Golden State to just 92 points on 39.3% shooting from the floor. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry combined for 55 points, but they were cancelled out by James Hardy and Chris Paul who had 57 total points.
Golden State’s third best player Klay Thompson had a miserable performance with only 10 points on 4 of 13 shooting. At one point he tweaked his knee and had to go to the locker room. Although he was able to come back into the game, he really was ineffective all night long. In fact, he’s been ineffective the last 3 games ever since he had 28 points in Game 1.
The Warriors let Game 4 slip right from their hands. They also lost their grip on the series. They were up by 10 points in the 4th an ended up being outscored 25-12 in the final quarter. Golden State also missed their last 5 shots of the game, which they had plenty of opportunities to tie it up and take the lead.
I don’t expect the same performance from these teams in Game 5 that they showed in the last game. In fact, I see this being more along the lines of their track meets in Games 1 & 2. I see a lot more scoring in this one as I expect both teams to come out aggressive, looking to impose their offensive game plans for the night.
For the Rockets to win, they actually need to keep the flow ugly like Game 4. Unfortunately, they always get caught up in these up and down the court track meets during this series. I also like how they shortened the bench in Game 4, as I believe they need to do that again. However, they can only do this by slowing down the pace.
For the Warriors, this team loves to push the pace, take it to the rim or bomb from the 3-point line. They have so many scorers that once they get out on a fast break, you are doomed. I expect them to up the tempo like they did in quarters 1 and 2 of the last game where they combined to score 62 points. Warriors really need Klay Thompson to play better. He did score those 28 points in Game 1 on the road. So, there’s a chance he could have a solid performance in Game 5.
Due to last game’s output, the Total for Game 5 has dropped down to 219.5 points. The first four games all floated around 224 to 225 total points. With that low of a total for these two teams, it might seem appealing, but I’m staying away from it. The Under is 3-1 so far in this series, but a drop of 5 points really makes it a tough call.
With the spread at -1 for the Rockets, the best play here is the moneyline. The odds are -110 for both teams. I don’t recall the last time the Warriors were at -110, but I’m taking their moneyline tonight. I believe the Warriors will bounce back as they have each time Houston has taken a game from them. After a Game 2 loss, the Warriors came out and crushed Houston by 41 in Game 3. I don’t expect them to win by that many, but I do think it will be close to double digits tonight.
The Warriors are 23-9 SU against the NBA Southwest this year, 10-4 SU in the playoffs, 8-3 SU when avenging a home loss against an opponent, 18-6 SU when avenging a loss against an opponent, and 19-2 SU after being upset as the favorite. Houston is 7-18 SU in their last 25 games against the Warriors and 2-5 SU in their last 7 home games against Golden State.
Bet: Golden State Warriors moneyline (-110)
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