Washington vs UCLA – NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 6th

by Rick Rockwell
on October 2, 2018
6

Minute Read

On Saturday, the #10 ranked Washington Huskies travel down to Southern California to take on the UCLA Bruins in a “David vs Goliath” Pac-12 game. Washington looks to stay ranked inside the top 10 in the country, while UCLA is still searching for their first win of the season. Kickoff inside the Rose Bowl is at 7:30 PM ET.

Betting Data Washington Huskies UCLA Bruins
Current S/U record 4-1 0-4
2018 Home 3-0 0-2
2018 Away 1-1 0-2
2018 ATS 2-4 1-3
2018 ATS Home 1-2 0-2
2018 ATS Away 1-1 1-1
2018 O/U 0-5 1-2-1
2018 O/U Home 0-3 0-1-1
2018 O/U Away 0-2 1-1

Washington Huskies vs UCLA Bruins Pac-12 Game Preview

Saturday’s matchup between these two teams marks the 74th head-to-head battle. UCLA leads the all-time series with a 39-32-2 record. The Bruins are also 10-3 against the Huskies in the last 13 meetings. These two teams played against each other last year in Seattle, WA, and the Huskies were victorious 44 to 23.

Washington (4-0, 2-0 Pac-12) is coming off an absolute stomping of then #20 BYU Cougars. The Huskies have won 4 straight games since their narrow Week 1 loss to Auburn on the road. Washington boasts the best defense in the conference and has veteran experience at both the QB and RB positions. The Huskies look to extend their winning streak to 5 games by defeating the Bruins this weekend and keeping pace with Stanford for the top spot in the conference.

UCLA (0-4, 0-1 Pac-12) lost their 4th straight game of the season by another double digit blowout defeat. The Bruins might just be the worse team in the Pac-12, but they do have some success against Washington this century. Can UCLA pull off the huge upset or will they be roadkill for a Washington team looking to steamroll their way to the top of the conference?

The spread opened at -21 with most online betting sites and has held steady since then. The Over/Under opened at 50.5 points, but has gone up slightly to 51 total points with many sportsbooks.

NCAAF Spread Bet and Pac-12 Game Prediction

Last weekend, Washington destroyed #20 ranked BYU by a score of 35-7. The Cougars scored their only points on the last drive of the game when they forced a turnover at Washington’s 21-yard line. The Huskies held BYU to 194 total yards and 7 first downs. It was an absolute demolishing of a BYU team that handed the Wisconsin Badgers their only loss of the season.

Washington’s defense leads the nation in points allowed at just 11.6 ppg. They also only allow 281 total yards per game, which breaks down to 155.2 passing ypg and 125.8 rushing ypg. In 3 of UW’s 5 games, they’ve held opponents to 7 points or less. There’s a strong chance they can do it again this weekend against a UCLA team that only averages 17 ppg.

The Bruins offense averages 312 total yards per game. However, they average a staggering low 176.3 passing yards per game. Furthermore, their running game only churns out 135.8 yards per game. I don’t see UCLA getting much traction on the ground this weekend against Washington. And, if they can’t pass the ball, then the Bruins are in for a very long, ugly game.

Washington’s offense is led by Jake Browning who has 1,243 passing yards, 8 TDs and 4 INTs on the season. His teammate Myles Gaskin is propelling the UW ground attack with 438 yards and 3 TDs. UCLA gave up 477 total yards to Colorado last weekend including 209 yards on the ground. I can see the Huskies getting close to this mark as the Bruins allow 183 rushing yards per game. UCLA also allows 238.5 passing yards per game, which bodes well for Browning on Saturday. Furthermore, the Bruins give up 37.8 ppg and 421.5 total ypg.

Washington is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Pac-12 games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record at home, 15-7 ATS versus teams with a losing record, and 6-3 ATS during Weeks 5 through 9 over the last few seasons.

UCLA is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 games, 9-27 ATS in their last 36 October games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 overall games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.

Despite UCLA’s overall success against Washington in their last 10 head-to-head meetings (7-3), this Bruins team is terrible. They have no defense and their offense is unable to produce points. It’s one thing to get blown out by Colorado and Oklahoma, it’s another thing to get blown out by Fresno and Cincinnati. Their closest loss of the season was a 9-point defeat to the Bearcats.

This weekend, I expect the Huskies to go down to LA and stomp the Bruins into submission. The Huskies are in a groove and play great football when inspired. Last weekend’s performance against the Cougars shows that this UW team is for real.

I don’t trust the Over/Under for this game due to UCLA’s inability to score and UW’s inconsistent output. The odds for the moneylines are not even worth touching. So, that leaves us with the spread, which is -21 points in favor of the Huskies. I believe Washington will hold the Bruins under their 17 ppg average and score at least 38, which is what UCLA gives up per game.

Washington vs UCLA Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Washington (-1600) and UCLA (+875)
  • Spread: Washington -21 (-116)
  • Over/Under: 51 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Washington 38 – UCLA 13
Pick: Washington -21
-116

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