In Week 7, the San Francisco 49ers will travel East to take on the New England Patriots in Jimmy Garoppolo’s return to Foxboro.
The 49ers rebounded last week from an abysmal Week 5 loss and look to put together a winning streak. The Patriots have fallen below .500 this late into the season for the first time since 2002. Which team will get this crucial victory? Kickoff inside Gillette Stadium is at 4:25PM ET.
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
|San Francisco 49ers||+2.5 (-105)||+120||Over 45 (-110)|
|New England Patriots||-2.5 (-115)||-140||Under 45 (-110)|
|Betting Data||San Francisco 49ers||New England Patriots|
|2020 ATS Home||1-3||2-1|
|2020 ATS Away||2-0||0-2|
|2020 O/U Home||1-3||1-2|
|2020 O/U Away||2-0||1-1|
These two teams have played against each other just 13 times and San Francisco holds the advantage with an 8-5 record. Their last meeting came in 2016 and the Patriots won 30 to 17. New England has also won four of the last five matchups.
The spread opened with the Patriots favored by 5 to 5.5 points at most NFL betting sites. Since then, the spread has come down to 2.5 points in favor of New England. The Over/Under opened at 46 points and has come down to an O/U of 45 total points.
The 49ers came out in Week 6 and proved that they’re not as bad as everyone thought they were following a 43 to 17 loss to the Dolphins in Week 5.
San Francisco put together a solid performance by holding the Rams to just 16 points and under 200 passing yards. If it weren’t for a long TD pass with 3 minutes left in the game, the 49ers would’ve won 24 to 9.
The 49ers defense was strong, but so was their offense as Garoppolo looked great against a tough Rams defense. Garoppolo finished with 268 yards and 3 TDs as the 49ers never trailed in this game.
The Patriots had a pathetic performance against the Broncos as they were held to below 300 total yards and could only manage one TD. Furthermore, Cam Newton had his worst performance of the season with two INTs and just 157 yards through the air. He was also sacked 4 times.
Defensively, the Patriots held Denver to six field goals and also forced 2 INTs, but the New England offense couldn’t capitalize on them.
This matchup is going to come down to how well the 49ers can stop the run. Denver had a solid rush defense, but the 49ers are slightly below the Broncos as they allow 108.3 rushing ypg.
For the Patriots to really capitalize on any San Francisco inconsistencies, they will need to succeed in their passing game as well. That’s no easy feat as the 49ers stifled the Rams passing attack last week.
For the 49ers offense, they will be without running back Raheem Mostert who is expected to miss a few games due to an ankle injury. I don’t see San Francisco having as much success on the ground without Mostert.
Despite what the 49ers did against the Rams, I just don’t see the Patriots losing three straight games. I believe they will bounce back on Sunday and earn a hard fought victory via their smash mouth rushing attack with Newton, Harris and Burkhead.
The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs losing teams. The Patriots are 17-4 SU in their last 21 home games, 8-2 SU in their last 10 NFC games, and 7-2 ATS in their last nine NFC matchups.
The Jedi master Bill Belichick will beat his former padawan Jimmy Garoppolo and all will be right with the Patriots’ galaxy for a week.
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