Wisconsin vs Michigan – NCAA Football Pick for October 13th

by Rick Rockwell
on October 9, 2018

Minute Read

On Saturday, the #15 ranked Wisconsin Badgers travel to Ann Arbor for a Top 15 Big Ten battle against the Michigan Wolverines. Both teams are undefeated in Big 10 play, but Michigan does hold the higher ranking at 12th overall. Both teams need a win and I expect this to be a hard fought, smash mouth Big Ten football game. Kickoff inside Michigan Stadium is at 7:30 PM ET.

Betting Data Wisconsin Badgers Michigan Wolverines
Current S/U record 4-1 5-1
2018 Home 3-1 4-0
2018 Away 1-0 1-1
2018 ATS 1-4 3-3
2018 ATS Home 0-4 3-1
2018 ATS Away 1-0 0-2
2018 O/U 3-2 3-3
2018 O/U Home 2-2 3-1
2018 O/U Away 1-0 0-2

Wisconsin Badgers vs Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Game Preview

Saturday’s matchup will be the 66th time these two teams have played against each other with the Wolverines holding the series advantage at 50-15-1. Since 2009, the Badgers have gone 3-1 against Michigan including a win in Ann Arbor in 2010. Last year, the game was in Madison and the Badgers won 24-10. In 2016, the last time they played in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines won 14 to 7.

Wisconsin (4-1, 2-0 Big 10) is coming off a Big 10 win over the lowly Nebraska Cornhuskers. It was the 2nd straight conference win as they also went to Iowa two weeks ago and won 28-17 against a tough Hawkeyes football team. The Badgers look to make it 3 straight wins in the Big 10 and turn their season around after losing to BYU three weeks ago.

Michigan (5-1, 3-0 Big 10) demolished an inferior Maryland football team last weekend by the score of 42-21. It was an improved performance over their lucky 20-17 win at Northwestern two weeks ago. The Wolverines look to make it 6 straight overall wins and a 4th Big 10 victory. They’re hoping to keep pace with Ohio State for the end of the season showdown.

The spread opened between 6.5 and 7 points in favor of the Wolverines. Since then, the spread has seen some movement as high as 7.5 points before settling at -7 for Michigan with most online sportsbooks. The Over/Under opened at 48 points, but has come down slightly to 47.5 total points at most betting sites. If you can find an online site for Wisconsin at +7.5 points then take it because that’s what we’re betting on in this game.

Free NCAAF Spread Pick and Game Prediction

The Wolverines defense has been dominant over the last 5 weeks only allowing an average of 14.2 ppg. For the season, they allow 15.8 ppg. The Badgers allow 16.4 ppg defensively, but do give up a ton more yards than Michigan at 349.8 total ypg to 230.5 total ypg. It’s actually a bit surprising that Wisconsin is giving up so many yards. Most notably, they just gave up 518 total yards to a winless Nebraska team as QB Adrian Martinez threw for 384 yards and 2 TDs.

Michgan QB Shea Patterson is averaging 220.8 yards per game, but has to like what sees is available in the passing defense of Wisconsin. Additionally, the Badgers give up 130.2 rushing yards per game. The Wolverines are tallying 199.8 rushing yards per game and will look to establish balance against UW.

The Badgers average 480.2 total yards per game and 33.8 ppg. However, they only throw for 193.2 ypg and amass 287 rushing yards per game. Once again, Jonathan Taylor is tearing it up as he’s already totaled 849 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs in 5 games. Furthermore, if Michigan doesn’t stop Wisconsin’s rushing attack, then the Badgers will steamroll the Wolverines in their home stadium.

Neither team is impressive throwing the ball, as they both try to run the ball and play good defense. Wisconsin has the better rushing attack, but Michigan has the better defense. So, this game will come down to whichever team can find success on the ground.

Wisconsin has been the favorite in all 5 games this season, which is why they’re 1-4 ATS in 2018. This is the first time they’re an underdog this year. In their last 5 games as an underdog, Wisconsin has gone 4-1 ATS. Furthermore, they’re 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, 10-0 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 with a record of 9-1 SU, 16-4 SU after 2 consecutive wins, 17-4 SU after playing a Big 10 game, and 18-4 SU in their last 22 Big Ten games.

The Wolverines are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games during October, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games during Weeks 5 through 9, and 6-8 SU when playing a winning team.

Michigan is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Wisconsin. The Badgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 against Big Blue and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Michigan.

Michigan hasn’t lived up to their preseason hype and has been racking up impressive numbers against inferior opponents. The same can be said about Wisconsin. This game is a matchup against two teams that have underperformed so far. Whoever comes away with the win will be sitting much better on the season.

The Wolverines need this win more. Wisconsin could lose and still make the conference title game due to being in a weak Big 10 West division. The Wolverines need this win to stay in the hunt in the East division with PSU and OSU.

I’m not sure who will pull this game out, but I don’t see the Wolverines winning by more than a touchdown. I think this is a generous spread with solid betting value. Wisconsin hasn’t lost on the road since their 2016 game at Michigan. I expect them to make this a close game all the way until the end. Take the Badgers and the points.

Wisconsin vs Michigan Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Wisconsin (+250) and Michigan (-300)
  • Spread: Michigan -7 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 47.5 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Michigan 24 – Wisconsin 21
Pick: Wisconsin +7

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Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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