Yankees at Orioles MLB Pick July 10

by Taylor Smith
on July 10, 2018

Minute Read

New York Yankees (-210)
Baltimore Orioles (+194)
Total: 9 1/2

On Monday, the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees wound up sharing the spoils in a doubleheader at Camden Yards. The hosts took the opener 5-4 before the Yankees stormed back with a 10-2 victory in the nightcap. The American League East rivals will tangle again on Tuesday night. While this has been a heated rivalry at times in the past, it’s safe to say there isn’t a whole lot of drama between the clubs at this point.

The Yankees enter play Tuesday at 59-30, which is good for the third-best record in the AL behind the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros. The Orioles, meanwhile, are just 25-66, which is the worst record in baseball. Baltimore enters Tuesday’s action a whopping 37.5 games behind of the Red Sox for first place in the division.

Masahiro Tanaka will make his return from the disabled list to start for New York against Baltimore veteran right-hander Andrew Cashner.

Tanaka has been sidelined since June 8 when he managed to strain both hamstrings while running the bases in an interleague affair with the Mets. The 29-year-old has a somewhat bloated 4.58 ERA on the year, but his 3.63 SIERA suggests he’s been a bit unlucky to this point. Tanaka has conceded 34.8 percent hard hits along with a very respectable strikeout rate of 24.8 percent.

Tanaka does a fine job keeping the ball on the ground and walks are rarely an issue. That said, he will give up the long ball. The right-hander has been taken deep 16 times in 13 starts already. He allowed a career-worst 35 home runs last season, so perhaps that’s no surprise. While he is certainly a talented pitcher, pitching the majority of your games in a tough division can take a toll.

The Japan native has also shown a fairly staunch reverse split in his career. While that would normally be an issue against a righty-heavy lineup like the Orioles, Baltimore is just terrible. They do have some pop, though, so it would be a surprise if Tanaka skirted through this start without allowing at least one home run. Rumored Yankee target Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones and Jonathan Schoop all have plenty of power from the right side of the plate.

As for Cashner, the numbers suggest he has enjoyed quite a bit of good fortune during his first season with the O’s. His 4.39 ERA isn’t all that impressive to begin with, but his 4.92 SIERA is still considerably worse. His 17.7 percent strikeout rate is an improvement over his tiny 12.2 percent mark from last season, but it’s still below league average.

Control has always been a problem for Cashner, and this year is no different. His walk rate is above 10 percent for the second consecutive season. His ground ball rate is also down considerably from 48.6 percent in 2017 to 40.4 percent thus far in ’18. The TCU product has already conceded 15 home runs, which matches his total from all of last year.

Right-handed hitters have a .368 wOBA against Cashner, while lefties are at .357 while also having accounted for 9 of those 15 dingers allowed.

Cashner hasn’t gotten blown up all that much this season, but the underlying numbers suggest that should change at some point. The Yankees certainly present a daunting matchup. New York is without star rookie Gleyber Torres at the moment, but most of the lineup is intact. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks and others help to form what is arguably baseball’s most powerful lineup.

The Yankees clearly have the better of the 2 pitchers starting tonight, and the lineup is a whole lot better, as well. At this point, the Orioles have essentially nothing to play for but pride, and it will be interesting to see how the team approaches the upcoming trade deadline. Someone like Machado seems likely to be in a different uniform once the calendar flips to August.

This one could get out of hand in a hurry, so I am a fan of the Yankees on the runline here. Go with New York -1 1/2.

Pick: Yankees -1 1/2

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