Yankees vs Indians – MLB Game 2 Pick for October 6th
The New York Yankees couldn’t figure out Trevor Bauer in game one of the ALDS, which puts them behind the eight ball going into Friday night. Next up is an impossible task – taking down Corey Kluber on the road in game two.
New York’s back is already firmly against the wall, as Kluber (18-4, 2.25 ERA) looks to build on an amazing 2017 campaign. The Tribe will be at home for a second straight game and if they can take a 2-0 lead, figure to be well on their way to winning a series few gave the Yanks a chance to survive.
An upset for game two is unlikely, but two things are clear; if New York has hopes of winning this series they need to win tonight and they certainly offer some value at most MLB betting sites.
The question is if it’s value worth chasing, as the lights out Kluber simply hasn’t been a man worth targeting this year. Not for those who like making money, at least.
So, how do we cash on this matchup? Let’s break this thing down a little further to find out:
I don’t think we want to waste our time with a straight up bet in favor of the Indians. We ultimately like Cleveland tonight, but you’re not getting enough value there.
Chasing the Yanks is surely a waste of time, so the bets we want are Cleveland’s Run Line or a wager on the Total.
This game starts and ends with Kluber, who is unlikely to face plant at home against an offense that thrives on power but lacks efficiency. Kluber isn’t immune to a random blow-up, but it’s just hard to believe he allows it to happen in such a huge setting.
Not only has Kluber been fantastic for pretty much all of 2017, but he’s excelled in just about every way you can approach this game. He’s been amazing at home (10-2, 1.81 ERA), he’s handled the Yanks (2-0, 1.59 ERA) and his career playoff numbers (4-1, 1.85 ERA) speak for themselves.
That, and the Yanks have just been flat out awful against this guy as a whole:
The Yankees' numbers against Corey Kluber aren't bad … they are the worst of all time. pic.twitter.com/e3XpDcWqS3
— Neil Keefe (@NeilKeefe) October 6, 2017
Yes, Kluber could implode against a dangerous Yankees lineup tonight and New York could run away with killer value. But they’re harsh underdogs for a pretty good reason.
New York’s pitching reinforcement isn’t overly imposing. C.C. Sabathia (14-5, 3.69 ERA) is the guy tasked with matching wits with Kluber and I’m not on the side that believes that will end well.
Sabathia has remained serviceable in his age-37 season, but he’s easier to get to than Kluber. You don’t see the strikeouts come at the rapid rate they once did, while any issues with his command can quickly send Sabathia off the tracks.
Perhaps he’s dialed in and gets a nice boost from a positive park shift. Perhaps, but it’s unlikely it leads to some gem of a performance or ends up being enough to get the win.
Sabathia has been visibly better on the road (7-3, 3.18 ERA) compared to Yankee Stadium, but he hasn’t matched up well with this Cleveland offense. The Indians are even more dangerous than the Yanks due to superior efficiency, while they pack as much power as anyone.
Cleveland owns the splits advantage here, as they ended 2017 ranked #1 in home runs when facing southpaws, #1 in RBI and #6 in collective batting average. This lineup goes to town on lefties and they’ll be comfortable at home against a guy they forced a sick 7.41 ERA on across three starts.
Nothing looks good here for Sabathia, who at best could hold serve until New York’s bullpen takes over and at worst could easily lose this one for the Yanks.
Ultimately, I think this Total is too weird to mess with. There is too much power here and a Sabathia implosion could ruin the Under. The only bet I really love is the Indians’ -1.5 Run Line, both because they feel like a lock to win and I don’t really expect this game to be all that close.
The great news is we get some solid value with it (-113 at BetOnline). I don’t see much risk here. The Indians crush at home, they have their best arm on the mound and New York’s pitching really shouldn’t contain their offense. Another easy win is in the cards for The Tribe tonight.