Yankees vs Red Sox – MLB Pick for April 10th

by Taylor Smith
on April 10, 2018
New York Yankees (+113)
VS
Boston Red Sox (-133)
Total: 7
All odds referenced in this article were taken from Bovada at 1pm on April 10, 2018. Odds may have changed since the time of this writing.

The best pitching matchup of Tuesday’s MLB slate comes in Boston, where we’ll see Luis Severino toe the rubber for the Yankees against Red Sox southpaw Chris Sale. Both starters started on Opening Day for their respective clubs, with Severino winning over Toronto while Sale took a no-decision in an eventual loss to the Rays.

Sale has a 0-0 record through 2 starts, but he’s pitched exceptionally well. In a pair of outings against Tampa Bay and Miami, Sale has struck out 15 hitters over 11 innings while allowing just 6 hits with an earned run. He’s also walked 3. He hasn’t pitched particularly deep into either of his starts yet, but most teams ramp up their starters as the year goes on.

Sale made 5 starts against the  Yankees last season and finished with an 0-3 record despite pitching quite well. He recorded a tidy 2.65 ERA in those outings and racked up a whopping 50 strikeouts in 34 innings alongside 10 earned runs. The Red Sox’ hitters just didn’t back him up well at all in those games, which is why he had nothing to show for it in terms of wins.

The Yankees have a potent offense, but there are tons of strikeouts in this lineup, too. Giancarlo Stanton is arguably the game’s premier power hitter, but he strikes out a ton. On Sunday, Stanton became the first player in the modern era to strike out 5 times in the same game for a second time in the same season.

Giancarlo historically crushes lefties, but Sale obviously isn’t your ordinary lefty. Last season, he struck out 14.7 percent of the time against southpaws compared to 26.1 percent of the time against righties. Of course, Sale also has better strikeout numbers against RHBs than LHBs over the course of his career, so the platoon advantage is somewhat neutralized for Stanton.

Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Tyler Austin are other bats that will swing and miss quite often.

As for Severino, he’s been dominant in his first 2 starts of the season against the Blue Jays and Rays. In 13 innings on the year, the young right-hander has allowed just 2 earned runs on 5 hits with 14 punchouts. The 24-year-old has been strong against hitters from both sides of the plate, but he’s historically been death against right-handed sticks. Severino held righties to a wOBA of just .243 last season. It’s worth noting that most of the Red Sox’ most potent hitters – J.D. Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts – swing from the right side of the plate.

Severino made 4 starts against the Sox last season and finished 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA. The Red Sox aren’t a high-strikeout type of lineup, but he did pick up 25 Ks in 24.1 innings of work against them in 2017.

While Severino is a strong pitcher, I think the Red Sox have enough depth in the lineup to give him some issues tonight. Sale’s matchup isn’t exactly rosy on the other side, but New York’s lineup is generally overrated. Stanton, Judge and Sanchez all have immense power, but it’s easy to see Sale potentially just mowing through them and the weaker parts of the order.

Boston is favored at home, but they look at little too cheap at -133 here. I don’t like picking on Severino, of course, but it’s rare you’ll get the Red Sox at this kind of a price with Sale on the mound. I also don’t think the over on 7 runs is the worst idea, though I wouldn’t go crazy hammering the over.

Take the Sox at home.

Pick: Red Sox
-133

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