On Saturday evening, the cyber world will be glued to YouTube as they watch the biggest “white collar” fight in boxing history as KSI takes on Logan Paul live from the Manchester Arena. Also on the undercard, is KSI’s brother Deji taking on Logan’s brother Jake Paul.
Last February, KSI took on Joe Weller in a boxing match that was born out of their online beef. It was a comical bout that provided more laughs than anything else inside the ring. However, what it lacked in regards to boxing, it made up for in hype and money. It was a megahit among KSI’s and Weller’s combined 22 million subscribers. Additionally, there was over 8,000 fans in attendance with an estimated gate over $750,000.
Even more mind boggling was the 1.6 million viewers watching the live stream and the 20 million views generated since then. Not to mention, the fight had a great set-up and first class production value.
With that said, I expect bigger things for the KSI vs Logan Paul fight and here’s why:
When I first analyzed this fight, KSI was the favorite in this bout at -150. These odds were largely due to his dominating performance over Joe Weller. Logan Paul came in at a +125 underdog due to his lack of fight experience. However, things have definitely changed in the last two months.
According to BetOnline, Logan Paul is now the favorite at -130 and KSI is the underdog at +110. One can only assume that all of the training videos, that each YouTube personality released, has affected the way that fans and oddsmakers now view the fight.
In addition to picking a winner, there’s also the following prop bets via BetOnline that have seen some betting action:
Since this is the first of two scheduled fights between KSI and Paul, I believe that the +155 odds for “Yes” provides some great value. Keep in mind, if the victor destroys the loser then why would anyone tune in to the second fight? For example, if Paul pummels KSI and eventually TKO’s him, why would anyone want to see a rematch when Logan thoroughly dominated him?
For these online personalities and YouTube to make the most money possible, they need an exciting fight that creates even more buzz for the second boxing match scheduled for next February. Keep in mind, these 4 YouTube personalities are businessmen first and boxers a distant second.
Now that I’ve established that the fight should, and most likely will, go the distance, I believe the betting options of a decision or a draw are worth looking at.
The Draw at +1200 is a wagering option that’s worth a flier. A $50 bet could net you $600. Unfortunately, a Draw could also create some disdain from the millions of viewers as it might appear to be intentional. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
I believe this fight will most likely end in a decision as that would be the best possible outcome for KSI, Logan Paul, and YouTube. It keeps fans interested in the second fight and it will make all parties involved even more money.
With the premise of these online personalities being businessmen first, I believe the perfect outcome would be for Logan Paul to win via decision. Paul comes into KSI’s homeland of the UK as the brash American favorite and someone that’s easy to dislike. If Paul wins, he can be the villain in this cyber storyline and it will definitely generate more ticket sales, YouTube views, and more money when the two fight again in February.
The undercard fight is often overlooked, but it could actually provide the most entertainment between the two bouts. According to Betway, Jake Paul is a heavy favorite at -500. Deji comes in as a +375 underdog. Jake has an athletic background and will have a height, weight and reach advantage over Deji.
These advantages don’t guarantee that Paul will win, but they clearly inspire the oddsmakers to list him as a heavy favorite. I believe both Paul brothers should, and will, walk away from this first boxing encounter as the victors. For those conspiracy theorists, the Draw has odds at +2000. That could be another wager worth taking a flier on. For me, I’m taking Jake via TKO.
As mentioned above, I believe that Logan Paul should and will win the fight via decision. From the brief videos I’ve seen of his training, he looks ready for this fight and it makes the most sense businesswise. I would prefer to see KSI take on Jake Paul in the second contracted event. That appears to be a more entertaining matchup than KSI vs Logan.
Regardless of who wins inside the ring, YouTube is the biggest winner of this entire cyber circus. I expect the company to make tens of millions of dollars off this event and to capitalize on a growing niche.
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