If you think that picking who you think is going to win a game, match, or a
fight is the right way to make sports bets, you’re in for a treat today. Why?
Because that couldn’t be further from correct. While this is the way that most
of the betting public choose their bets, it’s a recipe for a slowly leaking
bankroll and no profits. In this guide, we’re going to walk you through the
right way to make your betting selections. When you get done here today, you
will be far more equipped and educated on what it is going to take to be a
successful and winning sports bettor.
What Does the “Right Way” Mean?
Before we start giving you the tips and breaking things down, we need to make
sure we are all on the same page on what we’re attempting to accomplish. What
does “the right way” mean when we’re talking about picking betting selections?
Well, we’re referring to picking selections to win. Anyone can look at a game
and make a random selection and a bet. What we’re talking about is making picks
that give you a better chance of walking away a long-term winner.
If all you care about is having fun, then feel free to bet however you’d
like. We’re attempting to address those bettors who are serious about their
selections or are looking to become more serious with their approach. Becoming a
winning sports bettor is not easy. We’re not going to sugar coat that for you.
It requires a well thought out intelligent strategy and plan for making the best
So, if you’re just someone who wants to make some bets for kicks and giggles,
you can probably disregard this guide. But, if you’re looking to turn a profit
and take your betting to the next level, buckle up and dial in because we’re
going to help you a lot today.
Look for Value, Not Winners
Wait, What?! You probably think we’re crazy right about now. Did we just tell
you that you shouldn’t be trying to pick winners when you’re making your betting
selection? Yes…yes, we did. The good news for you is that we’re going to fully
explain what we’re talking about and why it’s crucial to the success of your
sports betting career.
The best way to start explaining this concept is by proving a fact. You can
have a winning sports betting record (meaning more wins than losses), be betting
the exact same amount with every bet, and still be losing money. Additionally,
you can have a losing sports betting record (more incorrect picks than correct),
be betting the same amount with every bet, and be making money. If you’re
confused, that’s okay. Let’s walk through this and then talk about how to apply
it to your betting selections.
The key here is that not all bets pay the same. If you’re betting big
favorites, you’re probably going to win a lot of your bets, but you might not be
making money. On the flip side, if you’re betting a bunch of underdogs, you’re
going to win less often, but you’re going to get paid out a lot more when you
If you bet four bets that are all (-500) favorites for $100 each and you win
three out of four, here’s what your profit will look like.
In this scenario, you are 3-1 on your picks, but you lost $40. You are
winning 75% of your bets, but you’re losing money. What you should be tracking
to gauge your success is your Return on Investment and not your win/loss record.
The amount you’re profiting or losing is much more important than your record
even though that seems to be what people tend to share.
Why is this important when making your selection? Well, hopefully, it’s clear
that your goal when making picks should not be picking winners. Anybody can come
out and fire on huge favorites to pad a nice looking win/loss record. It takes
an expert to come out and make bets that win you money. This is called making
bets for value. Your entire goal of sports betting should be trying to find bets
that have value.
Now, this does not mean you shouldn’t bet favorites or that you can’t make
money by only betting favorites. Here’s what we mean. This is the important part
so get your papers and pencils ready for this knowledge bomb coming your way.
You need to be looking for bets that are projected to pay out at a higher rate
than they should be.
Technically, the sportsbook tries to set the betting lines at exactly what
they think it should be (minus a few percentage points for the house rake so
they can make money). They will move this line based on how people are betting
to try to encourage or discourage bets onto different sides of a game. This
means that the line will frequently move to accommodate the goals of the
There can only be one correct line, though. That line would be what actually
happens in the game. If you had the ability to see the future, you could see
what the payout line or point spread should be, and you could bet if the line or
spread were off in your favor. If you’re a bit confused, that’s okay. Let’s look
at an example to make things a clearer for you. In this example, we’re going to
assume there is no house rake to make things simpler.
Let’s say that the Denver Dogaroos are playing the Memphis Fuzzygems. No,
these are not real teams, but they’re our made-up football teams for today’s
example. Let’s say that the Dogaroos are a phenomenal team and you think that if
they played the Fuzzygems 10 times, they would win 8 out of those 10 games.
Basically, you think they will win 80% of the games they play together.
The moneyline on the Dogaroos is currently (-400). So we’re all on the same
page, a moneyline bet is a wager that the team will win the game. The odds of
(-400) mean that if you were to wager $100 on the Dogaroos, you would return a
profit of $25. Is this a great bet to make or not?
The key to understanding whether or not this is a great bet selection to make
is implied probabilities. The implied probability is the probability (chance of
something happening) that another number implies. So, (-400) does not just tell
you how much you get paid for a correct bet on the Dogaroos, but it also tells
you the likelihood of the Dogaroos winning based on that number.
With some basic math conversions, we can turn any moneyline into a percentage
probability that something will happen. Since no one has time to do math, here’s an
implied probability converter that we’ve created for you. We highly
recommend bookmarking this because it’s going to become the cornerstone of your
sports betting career.
When you put (-400) in as the American odds, and you click convert, it tells
you that the implied probability of the Dogaroos winning based on this betting
line is 80%. Based on your prediction (what we will call the predicted
probability), you also thought the Dogaroos had an 80% chance of winning the
game. Therefore, this bet would be paying out exactly as you think that it
should pay based on the likelihood of the Dogaroos winning the game.
So, should you make this bet? Well, in reality, it doesn’t matter. If you are
correct in your prediction, you’ll effectively make $0 in the long run with this
bet. It pays out exactly as it should so there is no value.
Here’s what you’re looking for. You’re looking for bets where the implied
probability is LESS than what you actually think is going to happen (your
predicted probability). Remember, the sportsbook pays you out based on the
likelihood of something happening. The less likely it is to happen, the more
money they are going to pay you out. The more likely it is to happen, the less
money they are going to pay you out when you’re correct.
So, let’s say the sportsbook thinks the Dogaroos are not that good at
football and that they only have a 60% chance of winning the game. If you put
60% into the converter in the implied probability slot and click convert, you
see that the American odds are about (-150). If you were to bet $100 at (-150),
you would get a profit back of $66.67.
This is WAY more than you think we’re supposed to get. You predict that the
likelihood of a win is 80% which should pay out a profit of $25. You think that
a $25 profit is fair. If the sportsbook is paying you out $66.67 when you’re
right, you are getting WAY overpaid. That is value.
When you find good value like this, you’ve found a great bet. If your
predictive probability (how likely you think they are to win) is correct and the
sportsbook is paying you better than they should be, you’ve found value, and
you’re on your way to making some money.
It’s important to note that you can find value in underdog picks as well.
Should you bet these picks even if you don’t think the underdog is going to win?
In most cases, you should be betting these. Remember, sports betting is not
about winning the next bet. It’s about winning money in the long run. The more
bets that you make that have value, the more you’re going to make in the long
The thing to remember when betting underdog bets for value is that it may
take more games and bets for you to realize your profit.
Let’s say the Dogaroos and the Fuzzygems are playing again. The
Fuzzygems are the underdogs again at (+400). You think that the Fuzzygems have a
40% chance of winning the game. Is there value in this bet and should you make
Well, first you need to convert the moneyline odds of (+400) into an implied
probability. If the implied probability is lower than your predicted probability
(40%), then there is value in the bet. You put (+400) into the converter, and
you see that the implied probability is 20%. This means that you’d be getting
paid out way more than the sportsbook should be paying you.
If you’re curious as to what you think the odds should be based on what we
think the likelihood of them winning is, you can figure that out. You put 40%
into the implied probability converter and see that you think the odds should be
+150. This means that if you were to bet $100, you think you should be getting
$150 in profit while the sportsbook is willing to pay out $400 in profit. There
is a lot of value here.
But…you still think that the Fuzzygems are going to lose the game. When you
say they have a 40% chance to win, you’re saying that you think they’re going to
lose more often than they win. So, should you make this bet?
First, let’s look at how things would work if you made 10 bets and the
sportsbook was right that they were only 20% likely to win the game.
Your total profit would be $0. You would have lost 8 of 10 bets, but because
you were getting paid the correct amount it balances out. Obviously, you can’t
bet the same game 10 times, but the idea is that if you’re always making bets
that pay out the correct amount you will always break even.
Let’s take a look at this same scenario except let’s say that your prediction
that the Fuzzygems have a 40% chance of winning the game is correct. This means
that they should win 4 out of every 10 times they play. Remember, the sportsbook
is still paying you out on their prediction of only a 20% likelihood of winning.
In this scenario, you would be turning a profit of $1000! You were betting on
games you expected to lose, but because there was value you were able to turn a
profit in the long run.
How to Utilize This in Making Your Picks
By now, you are hopefully seeing that the key to being a winning sports
bettor is finding value whether that is with favorites or underdogs. If you
continually make value picks instead of just picking who you think will win the
game, you’re going to start turning a nice profit. The more value you find, the
more money you’re going to make.
So, what are the actionable steps you can take to utilize this information to
make better picks? It’s actually quite simple. First, you need to figure out the
percentage chance you think a bet has of winning. This is easier said than done,
but we will cover this in a later section. Once you figure out what the
likelihood is of a bet winning, you need to convert that percentage into an odds
number. Then, start looking at different sportsbooks and see what they are
paying for that bet. If they are paying better than what you think they should,
you should make that bet.
Let’s say that our favorite team, the Dogaroos, are playing
against the Seattle Stinkpots. You work your predictive strategy (which we will
cover in the next section), and you figure out that you think the Dogaroos have
a 35% chance to win against the Stinkpots. You put that into the converter and
you see that the moneyline odds should be +185. If you find any sportsbook that
is paying better than +185, you should make that bet because it has value.
If you go to Sportsbook #1 and see they are paying out that bet
at +210, you should bet. Keep in mind that there won’t always be huge
discrepancies in the payouts so you may have to go for thinner value sometimes.
If you can only find something like +195, you still may want to take that bet.
Always be looking for value and not winners. The key to winning at sports
betting in the long run, is finding value and taking advantage of it.
There are some instances where there may be value in a pick that you won’t
want to bet on. The further that the payout odds get from zero, the bigger the
value you’ll need to be looking for. For example, the difference between +150
and +200 is 50. This would be a pretty big value find in our opinion. The
different between +1000 and +1050 is also 50, but this would not really be a
huge value find. The bet is so unlikely to happen that the risk is most likely
not worth the reward. In theory, yes, you could still make this bet, but it’s
going to take you so many instances to overcome the variance that it’s probably
not worth it.
The same goes for favorites. (-200) has much more value than (-230). However,
(-500) and (-530) are only 30 apart, but are not that great of a value find.
While you could still make this bet, your reward might not be big enough for the
risk associated. Always make sure to ask yourself if there is enough value for
you to be taking the risk you are. Small discrepancies closer to zero are much
more worth it than those further away from zero.
An Additional Note About Point Spread and Totals Bets
As you may have noticed, we’ve mainly been discussing moneyline bets and
haven’t really touched on finding value with bets that don’t usually have
varying payouts but instead have varying point spreads. When looking for value
here, you have two ways of approaching the situation – the easy way and the hard
The hard way would be figuring out your predicted win percentage, converting
it into a moneyline, and then converting that into a spread. There are a few
calculators out there to help you with this, but they are less than reliable.
The easy approach here is instead of figuring out the percentage chance you
think a team will win by, figure out how many points you think they’re going to
win by. It’s the same process except you are coming out with a different number.
If the spread offered is better than what you think it should be, there is
Build a Predictive Strategy
Successful sports betting is not about throwing crud against the wall and
seeing what sticks. It’s also not about sitting around staring at a blank wall
or a page of lines and looking to see what jumps out at you. Successful sports
betting is much more about using a well-formulated and carefully crafted
predictive strategy to find the bets that you should and should not be making.
In the above section, we talked about finding value by converting your
predictive probability into a moneyline odds number and comparing that with what
the sportsbook is offering. If you find a better payout, you take it and laugh
all the way to the bank. While this sounds simple in theory, the complexities
and challenges come in figuring out your predictive probability. When you’re
right, you’re going to make money. When you’re wrong, you’re going to lose
To make sure we’re all on the same page, let’s talk a little bit more about
what our predictive probability is. This is a number presented as a percentage
that says how likely we think a team is to win a game. It’s a fancy term, but
the premise is simple. If you think a team is going to win 75% of the time they
play a game, your predictive probability is 75%.
You have two main approaches that you can take to figuring out the predictive
percentage for a team to win a game. There are more approaches, but most of them
will fall into one of these two categories. The first is the “eyeball approach”
and the second is the mathematical approach.
The eyeball approach is not really a professional term, but more of a way of
describing the strategy of collecting data, analyzing stats and history, and
then coming to your own conclusion. This is what a lot of sports bettors already
do but in a milder form. Here’s where we’d like to put a twist on it, though.
Most sports bettors look at the game coming up as a one-time game, and they
decide either win or lose. This doesn’t help us if we’re looking for a
percentage chance of winning the game.
Instead of looking at the game as a single game, imagine that the two teams
are going to play 100 times. Decide how many times you think one team will win
out of those 100 times. That will be your predictive percentage. If you think
they’ll probably win 60 times out of 100, your predictive probability is 60%.
You can do this with 10 games as well and multiply it by 10. It doesn’t really
matter which you use. What does matter is that you’re able to get your mind
The second approach is to create a mathematical formula that gives you a
percentage based on the stats and factors that you put into it. There is a
multitude of different ways to build your formulas, but here is a general idea
to get you started. Come up with the criteria that you think is important to
figure out how likely a team is to win. This could be any number of criteria and
usually the more, the better.
After you determine the criteria you think are important, you’re going to
want to figure out how much weight each of those criteria will carry. Then, you
want to give each team a rating based on your opinion or statistics. If you
build your formula well, it will spit out the percentage that you are looking
for. You’ll always want to be tweaking your formula until it’s perfect and you
can print money on a sport.
Let’s look at a way oversimplified example to try and figure out the
predictive probability of our ole’ favorites the Dogaroos versus the Seattle
Stinkpots from our earlier examples. Let’s say you determine that offense,
speed, and coaching are the three criteria that will help you determine who will
win. Again, a real formula will have way more criteria than this, but this works
for this example. You decide that offense is 50% of the equation, speed is less
important at 30% of the equation, and coaching only plays into the equation 20%
of the time.
You then give each team a rating from 1-10 in each category.
You plug these numbers into your formula for each team, and it looks like
this. You can also change your percentages to decimals to make your math easier
(50% is the same as .5, etc.)
Dogaroos = .5(8) + .3(7) + .2(4) = 6.9
Stinkpots = .5(6) + .3(4) + .2(6) = 5.4
Now, you just need to figure out what percentage of the total points each
team has and that will be your predictive probability. The total points can be
found by adding 6.9 and 5.4. This gives us 12.3. Now, you want to find what
percentage each team’s score is of 12.3. This is found by dividing their score
by the total points available and multiplying that number by 100.
Dogaroos = (6.9/12.3)*100 = 56%
Stinkpots = (5.4/12.3)*100 = 44%
So, based on your formula, you think the Dogaroos are 56% likely to win the
game, and the Stinkpots are 44% likely. While we covered this in the previous
section, let’s convert this to a moneyline and see what odds we think we should
be getting paid out on this game. Practice makes perfect, right?
We go to our converter, and we put in 56% as the implied probability and
click convert. It tells us that the odds should be -127. If you see better odds
at a sportsbook, you’ve found value.
If you want to use statistics in your formula, you can certainly do that.
What you do in that situation is assign ranges to each number 1 through 10. For
example, let’s say that you are using average passing yards as one of your
statistics. Here is the scale you could use for your rating system.
0 – 40 yards
41 – 80 yards
81 – 120 yards
121 – 160 yards
161 – 200 yards
201 – 240 yards
241 – 280 yards
281 – 320 yards
321 – 360 yards
Which Approach Is Better?
Honestly, the answer to this question is which approach works better for you.
Some people who love math and statistics are going to like the mathematical
approach. Other people who are allergic to math might enjoy the other approach.
As long as the approach you choose is working for you and you’re winning, that’s
going to be the better approach. If you’re brand new to betting, you may want to
start with the eyeball approach but toy around with the mathematical one. Just
make sure that you’re putting in the proper amount of research and effort into
making your picks.
Do Your Homework
Sports betting is not something that comes easy to anyone. It doesn’t matter
how sharp or smart you are. Sports betting is something that rewards those who
are willing to work hard to get what they want. What does that mean for you? It
means that you need to be willing to put in the time and effort necessary to
make the right picks and win.
Let’s talk a little bit about what that means, though, because most people
initially misinterpret what this means. Here’s something you need to understand.
Even if you watch every single game of a sport, you are not an expert. Unless
you have some incredible rain-man lie ability to absorb everything that is
happening at every second of every single game, you’re not an expert. Hint: none
of you reading this have that ability because it doesn’t really exist.
This means that if you want to be an expert on a sport you need to be doing
your homework. By homework, we mean pouring through stats, watching game
footage, and doing everything you can to try and identify edges that you can
take advantage of.
You have to make sure, though, that you are working smarter and harder. If
you put in 20 hours a day studying pointless facts and drawing worthless
conclusions, you’re still going to make the wrong picks and be a terrible sports
bettor. If you put in less time, but on the right stats and draw the right
conclusions, you’re going to be wildly successful. You have to be utilizing your
research and prediction time wisely.
How long should you be studying and researching for every game or pick you
make? There is no definitive answer. The answer is that you need to be spending
as long as necessary to make winning picks.
For some of you that are new, this
may be quite a few hours into your picks. For those of you that are sharp and
have been betting successfully for a while, this might not be as long.
We will tell you this, though. The more intelligent and well-spent time you
put into studying for your picks, the more successful you should be. Sports
betting has a way of rewarding the people who are willing to put in the hard
work and the long hours to crack the system and make better picks. There is no
reason that this can’t be you as long as you’re dedicated.
Be Rational, Not Emotional
When you’re making sports bets, you need to be thinking and choosing with
your head and not your heart. Sports by themselves are emotional rollercoasters
to watch. When you toss in the added stresses of winning and losing money,
you’ll find that stress going through the roof. A missed catch or silly mistake
by a player is no longer just a loss for your favorite team, but it’s now less
money going into your pocket.
This rise in stress is going to have your emotions doing backflips from time
to time. Is this something to be worried about? No, this is something that you
should expect to happen. What you should be worried about, though, is if your
emotions start to affect your betting choices. It’s easy to let our logic get
clouded by our feelings, and the result is not good for our bottom line. The
toughest part of it all is that our brains are smart enough to try and
rationalize our emotions and convince ourselves that our emotions really are
You need to have strong control over this before you start making your picks.
One of the best strategies is getting all your bets in before any of the games
that day start. While this is going to prevent you from making irrational
choices that day, it might not be ideal. If you’re waiting on lines to move, you
may have to wait until after other games have already started. If they’re not
going well, you may be tempted to do something out of the ordinary to chase your
losses or make you feel better.
If you’re someone who has to wait for lines to move, write out what it is
that you are going to do. You can write down that if X line moves to Y points,
you will bet Z amount. That way, as long as you have enough self-discipline to
follow your own rules, you won’t end up making a silly bet selection that you
normally wouldn’t have.
This will protect you for that day, but you still need to make sure that your
emotional responses don’t carry over to the next day and your future selections.
You need to be in a clear and stable state of mind before you go picking any
teams to bet. If you’re not, take some time to calm yourself down and get your
mind clear. If you can’t, then don’t make any bets until you are.
We won’t get on our soapbox today to preach to you, but self-control and
discipline are almost as important as being able to make winning selections. If
you lack either, you need to put safeguards in place or choose another hobby or
way to make money. It’s that simple.
One additional tip that’s very popular is to avoid betting on any of your
personal favorite teams. Many sports bettors report struggling to avoid bias and
get what they want to happen out of their mind when placing wagers for or
against their own team. It’s up to you whether or not you’d like to follow this
tip. From our experience, though, most sports bettors struggle with this even if
they claim they have no issues with it.
Quality Before Quantity
We need to make sure that you notice this is slightly different than the
phrase you’re probably used to hearing. The cliché phrase is quality OVER
quantity. However, we say that when it comes to picking your sports betting
selections, it should be quality BEFORE quantity. You see, the first phrase says
that you should abandon quantity completely for the sake of quality. What we are
saying, though, is that you should establish quality first and then push to
increase your quantity.
In Other Words, You Need to Find a Way to Make Quality Sports Bets First
Once you’re able to win on a small scale, you can work to expand and make more
bets. That’s how you’re going to make some serious money. The key, though, is
doing this without ever sacrificing your quality. Too often, people want to
double their bankroll and take over the world overnight. Sports betting is by no
means a sprint. It should be viewed as a marathon. It’s not a race to see who
can fire off the most low-quality bets the fastest.
Quality Is the Most Important When It Comes to Sports Betting Because Low-Quality Bets Equal Losing Money
This is probably something you already
knew. However, while most people know this, they tend to neglect its importance
in the name of trying to win too quickly. Allow the quantity to come naturally.
If you’re only able to make one or two quality bets a week initially, that’s
okay. As your strategy grows and your game is sharpened, you’ll be able to find
more edges, and the number of games you bet will increase. Do not force this
under any circumstances.
Quantity Is Still Important When It Comes to Sports Betting
This is because
sports betting is a long-term betting game that will require you to deal with
variance. Variance is a math concept that says no matter how good you are, you
will have short-term winning and losing streaks. In the long run, the sharp
bettors will always win out, but that requires them to make a large volume of
bets. Obviously, the quicker you get through that large volume of bets, the
quicker you’ll be guaranteed to overcome the variance and realize your profit
and gains. If you do that while sacrificing quality, though, you’re going to be
digging yourself a hole that you may never get out of.
Game Predictions Before Bet Types or Looking at Lines
Many times we hear that new sports bettors will pick out the type of bet they
want to make first and then worry about which side to choose. For example,
they’ll say something like, “I want to make a moneyline bet on this game,” and
then they’ll begin their research and predictions. Other bettors may pull up the
list of bets and lines and look for some they like and then begin their research
to validate that bet. While these may seem like the correct
approaches, there is a better and more effective way to approach betting.
What you should do instead is start by predicting how you think the game is
going to go. Do this before you even look at any lines or opinions by anyone
else. Why? Well, there is something known as the self-fulfilling prophecy.
Basically, if you want to see something, you will subconsciously start looking
for things that validate that. If you want to bet that Team A will win, you’ll
start noticing stats that support that viewpoint and ignore ones that don’t. All
of this usually happens without your brain consciously being aware of it. To
avoid this, make your predictions about the game before you look and get any
lines or odds in your head.
Predicting the game flow and outcome before deciding what type of bet to make
does quite a bit for you. You see, you may find a lot of other bets that you can
make that you would never have thought of. You may also find that the type of
bet you were looking to make is not the ideal bet you want to make.
Let’s say you are working on coming up with a prediction for the
game between the Denver Dogaroos and the Seattle Stinkpots. Normally, you like
to make moneyline bets, but today you decide to take our advice and predict the
game before you go and make your bet.
Your prediction of the game is that it’s going to be an offensive blowout.
Both teams are going to go nuts, and the Dogaroos star player RuffRob
Gronkdogski is going to have a huge game. You predict that the game is going to
be close, but you think the Dogaroos should pull off the win. Should you still
make your moneyline bet?
Well, you look at the odds, and you see that the Dogaroos are +3 points on
the spread. Since you weren’t positive they were going to win, you might want to
take the spread bet instead. You also might want to look into betting the over
since you think it will be an offensive showcase and you may want to put a few
prop bets on Grondogski to have a big game. Basically, by predicting the game
first, you were able to see that there was a better option for you to take and
you identified a few extra bets that you could profitably make.
This will also protect you from getting gun-shy when you see lines that are
really bad. If you think the Dogaroos should be favored and you see they are +8,
then you might convince yourself that there is something you’re missing and
there’s a reason that the line is so bad. Because of that, you may talk yourself
out of making what might be an incredible bet. But, if you’ve already done your
homework and have made your prediction, you’ll be able to recognize that as a
horrendous line and will have no fear slamming down a bet before the other sharp
bettors find it and move it back to where it should be.
Putting It All Together
Hopefully, you’ve now seen that just throwing darts at the wall or pulling
picks out of thin air are not the ways to be a profitable sports bettor. If you
really want to do things the right way, you need to follow a structured
approach, put in the adequate amount of time and research, and stick to your
system and rules. Everything we’ve provided for you in this guide is not
intended to make sports betting more work and less fun, but it’s intended to
help you be a more profitable and successful sports bettor.
Remember, sports betting isn’t a sprint to the finish, but a slow,
methodical, and calculated move towards profitability. Don’t rush anything and
give your expertise time to grow and shine through. Trust us; you’re going to be
thankful one day when you realize how much this information has helped you
achieve your sports betting goals.
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